Model Robustness Analysis

Assumption Value
Initial capital 100,000
Simulations 10,000
Trade sample 404
Commission 0.02% per trade
Slippage 3 ticks equivalent
Parameters Fixed


Monte Carlo Simulation Overview


Each path reorders the same historical trade sample to test sensitivity to sequencing. Strategy rules and trade outcomes remain unchanged.



Median Path and Scenario Range


This view highlights the typical outcome, along with more conservative and more optimistic scenarios.


This chart summarizes the dispersion of outcomes under repeated trade-order randomization. It illustrates scenario range, not guaranteed future returns.



Final Return Distribution


This distribution shows where most final results tend to fall.


Most simulations end within the central range shown above under the tested assumptions.



Monte Carlo Drawdown Distribution


This section shows how drawdowns are distributed across different scenarios.

“Under the tested assumptions, most simulated maximum drawdowns fall between 2% and 7%

Based on 2 years(2024-2026) of historical model data. Statistical performance may vary across market regimes.